Category Archives: #MTGFinance

Examining Shocks Through the Lens of Fetches

Modern Masters 2015 is still all the rage in the #mtgfinance community (you can read my initial thoughts here), but we still know very little about the set, too little to make many solid evaluations. Probably the most important thing we do know is that nothing past New Phyrexia will be printed in the set. A quick look back at the original MMA reminds us that the cut-off the first time around was Zendikar block, at this time of year in 2012 was fairly recently rotated from standard.

1. This means that, at least as far as seasonal and rotational cycles, Zendikar block is to MMA what Return to Ravnica block is to MM2015.

It’s common knowledge that the best time to buy new Modern (or Legacy) cards is within a few months of their rotation from standard. I won’t bother rehashing the reasons why, because they are fairly well known and understood.

This means that, even without the MM2015 announcement, it is already the right time to be buying eternal playables from RTR block. If anything, we are getting close to the end of the window, as most tournament cards bottom somewhere between rotation and the release of the winter set.

While there are quite a few eternal cards in Return to Ravnica block, today we are going to focus exclusively on the Shock lands, with the help of the price trajectories of the Fetch lands during the year after Zendikar’s rotation from standard.

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2. While ZEN is to MMA what RTR is to MM2015, there is more RTR in print.

If you look back over the price histories of Zendikar block, you’ll find that most Modern playables (including the Fetchland cycle) bottomed between rotation and the release of Mirrodin Besiged, started slowing creeping up through the Spring of 2013, and then doubled in price from when MMA released and November 2013 (and then many of these cards spiked even higher around the time of GP Richmond.)

This said, being the “most opened set in history” limits the potential of RTR block when compared to Zendikar. WOTC is notorious for not releasing print runs, so its hard to say just how many more Shocks there are than Fetches, or how many more Sphinx’s Revelations there are than Iona’s, but rest assured, there are more, and likely magnitudes more.

Shocks in particular present a problem. While all the Zendikar fetches more then doubled in price between October 2012 and October 2013, not only did they have the Modern explosion from MMA, but also Legacy demand, as well as the benefits of only having a single printing in an early-growth period set. Shocks, on the other hand, have 2.5 printings (counting the Dragon’s Maze copies of the RTR and GTC shocks as a half a printing), have little Legacy demand, and are found in middle-to-late growth period set. They are also less-played in Modern than fetches, generally being one-or-two ofs, rather than four-ofs.

As such, when you look at the big pictures, it seems hard to argue that shocks can experience the same amount of growth as fetches did post-rotation. This said, it also seems very likely that shocks are still a great buy at the moment.

3. So where are Shocks going to be in a year?

Zendikar fetches increased, on average 170 percent in their year following their rotation. Scalding Tarn went from $18 to $50, even the lowly Marsh Flats went from $12 to $32. If we translated a 170 percent increase into Shock values, we would be looking at prices in the low-to-mid $20’s next fall.

But again, Shocks are not fetches.

So what if we assume, based on all the factors we talked about a few moments ago (DGM printing, original Ravnica block printing, coming from a more opened set, seeing less play in both modern and legacy) Shocks increase at half the rate of Fetches. This would give us an increase of 85 percent rather than 170 percent. Based on the current $8-$10 price range on shocks, this would mean a year from now, prices would be in the mid-to-high teens. Which definitely seems worth buying into.

The less profitable alternative is if, instead of growing at half the rate of Fetches, Shocks only grow at a quarter of the rate, and increase 42 percent. This would give us prices between $12 and $14. While this still represents a profit, if you think about opportunity cost, shipping, and fees, buying in at $9 and selling for $13 is by no means a slam dunk (and also eliminates buylists as an option for moving your Shocks, because with a typical 30 percent spread, you would be making in the neighborhood of $0.10 a piece for a not-insignificant investment).

4. So the question is, do you believe Shocks are half as good as Fetches?

Personally, I believe they are, and as a result, I’m expecting mid-to-high teen prices for Shocks by next fall, but this is a question you need to ask and answer for yourself, based on the evidence and your feelings about the potential growth in the Modern format as a result of MM2015. If you don’t feel confidant that Shock can and will grow at half the rate of Fetches (or more), than you shouldn’t buy in.

P.S. If you decide to buy in, BUY THE ORIGINALS.

Now, take this with a grain of stale, because I’m a sucker for original printing personally, but I’m only interested in buying Shocks from the original Ravnica block. Apart from my bias against reprints, the general consensus seems to be that the art is better, and from a pragmatic standpoint, there are far fewer in circulation.

Plus, they only cost a dollar or two more than the RTR versions, which seems crazy.

You can buy a KTK Polluted Delta for about $15, but if you want an ONS copy, it’s going to cost you closer to $50 (I realize KTK to ONS is more different than RAV to RTR ascetically, but still). At the same time, you can buy a Gatecrash Breeding Pool for $9 ,but you can get the much better looking and rarer Dissension version for $10? This doesn’t really make much sense. Why would you not be the originals when the prices are practically the same?

Anyway, that’s all for today. I have a piece ready to go at http://www.mtggoldfish.com comparing holding sealed booster boxes to investing in mutual funds. It should be out soon, so make sure to check it out.

Modern Meta at #mtgchamp

World’s Week is always one of the most fun times on the magic calendar. While the World Cup is always entertaining, if you like star power and high-level magic, the World Championship is the event for you.

Yesterday started with three rounds of Vintage Masters draft (likely the first sanctioned phantom draft in paper magic) highlighted by Wraper opening a Mox Jet and Jeremy Dezani’s first match taking nearly three hours to finish 0-2-1 (which was actually great for me, because despite my best intentions, I didn’t wake up until 5 AM, nearly two hours after the start of the event).

I spent the lunch break calculating the EV of drafting VMA in paper. By using the cheapest version of each card (so white bordered power, Revised duals, etc) and discounting commons and uncommons all together, I came up with a touch over $166 (and its probably a bit higher if you count things like Reanimate at uncommon and Brainstorm at common). Either way, if anyone offers you the chance to pay $150 for a non-phantom paper VMA draft, you should probably take it.

Modern Meta

While opening Mox Jet’s is awesome, and the EV of paper VMA is interesting, what I really wanted to talk about was the Modern metagame brought to Worlds by 24 of the best players on earth. If you check out the deck lists , here is the breakdown you’ll find.

pieChart_jpg(1)

Most Played Cards (Lands)
*The highest number of any single card that could be played in a 24 player field is 96.

pieChart_jpg(2)

pieChart_jpg(3)pieChart_jpg(4)

Land Discussion

I should mention right off the bat that using a 24 player tournament made up of ultra-spikes may not be the best way to generalize to the broader meta. On one hand, people do tend to follow the pros lead, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of their innovations showing up on-line or in your FLGS over the winter, but at the same time, a deck like Pyromancer Ascension takes a lot of skill to play well, so it’s definitely not for every F&M grinder. This said, it’s still worth discussing what the pros are up to in modern.

First off, there are a ton of Scalding Tarns and Steam Vents being played at the World Championship. While this isn’t really a surprise, finding that a 66.67 percent of the World Championship field is playing the full four copies of Scalding Tarn (across several different decks, no less) is worth note. Prices on Tarn have been steadily decreasing for a year now and there is some amount of speculation/fear about a reprinting in the near future. I don’t think ZEN fetches will show up in KTK-block (mostly because of the “the enemy/ally breakdown of lands in standard is already equal” argument), and while having ONS fetches in modern relieves some of the pressure on mana-bases as a whole by allowing for less expensive substitutes, the World Championship field shows that the correct (i.e. no budget concerns) modern manabase is going to be Scalding Tarn heavy. Whether or not this means a recovery for Tarn is yet to be seen, although having a modern PT in a couple months, and on-camera SCG events starting soon can’t hurt.

Second, where the heck is Polluted Delta? Blue decks, and blue fetches are dominating the tournament, but Delta is nowhere to be found.

Third, if you had told my Sunday that there would be 12 Faerie Conclaves in the field, I would have laughed you out of the room.

Fourth, it is worth mentioning that there are two difference Jeskai Ascendency builds, the CFB Fatesticher based combo, and a 5-color version from Lars Dam. While I would guess that most people will move towards the CFB build because of the groups popularity, Dam’s build is running x4 Gemstone Mine, which hasn’t really made much noise in modern. If, for some reason, Ascendency Combo heads Dam’s direction, maybe there could be some potential here?

Dig Through Time or Treasure Cruise?

pieChart_jpg(5)

So, as the above pie chart shows, there are more Cruises than Digs in the World Championship field. At this point it clear that Dig is better in control, and Treasure Cruise is better in tempo/aggro (basically, decks where most of your cards do the same thing). The most interesting Dig/Cruise revelation from the World Championship comes from what decks are not playing Cruise, specifically the CFB Ascendency deck, which decided on a 1-4 split in favor of Dig. This is a major evolution in the Ascendency deck, as the earlier build of Ascendency Combo tended to favor Dig.

Counterspells

pieChart_jpg(6)

Non-situational counters are at an surprising low, especially considering the number of Scalding Tarns in the field. However, the versatile Izzet Charm is out in force. Both the F&M promo and RTR foils are sitting at between $2.50 and $3.00, with a foil multiplier of about x4, and could represent a good buy.

Final Notes:

I was going to break down creatures, but given that a high percentage of the deck in the field are creature free (Pyromancer Ascension), creature-light (Ascendency Combo, Scapeshift), or Delver, there really isn’t much to see here.

The fact that nearly half the Delver decks are splashing green for Tarmogoyf is interesting, and represents another new development. The return of Pyromancer Ascension is a good story, and the deck could see an uptick in popularity as a budget option for local modern events. Ascension was as high as $10 over the summer, and you can pick up copies for as little as $5 currently and could be a card to keep an eye on. Its probably worth skimming over the some upcoming modern results to see if the deck is on the upswing, or if it is simply the product of the pro meta.

CFB returned to the Gifts/Rites transformational SB plan, which was somewhat popular online a year or so ago. While it probably won’t impact prices of anything much, as a player it’s something to be aware of because it does seem like a good way to pick up some free wins with Iona, given the severe lack of any graveyard interaction in the World Championship meta.

Finally, don’t think about specing Fatestitcher. Sure, the deck is cool, but it’s an uncommon, and even foils are uninteresting due to those horrible all foils Alara block packs.

Anyway, what do you make of this data? What did I miss. Let me know in the comments, or @SaffronOlive on twitter.

The Great Buylist Review Parts 1 and 2 (Archived)

Note: I originally published this piece on Reddit in September 2014. Wanted to move it here for easy of access and safekeeping.

Few days ago I wrote A Casestudy in Buylisting in an attempt to make the argument that buylisting is a comparable or in some cases superior option to selling cards in eBay or TCG for many financiers.

On of the response was from /u/i_take_reddit_breaks who asked, “Can you go into a little about what stores you buylist to? Right now I’m only familiar with ChannelFireball, Starcity, and Card Kingdom.”

Over the past five years I’ve sent over 500 buylist orders to many different vendors, and using this experience today I will be talking about the different buylists I use, how much I expect to receive from each buylist once they finish grading an order, the types of cards I sell to specific buylists, as well as the quirks of individual buylists.

The Basics

First, there are several sites out that that search multiple buylists at the same time ranging from www.quietspeculation.com (subscription required), www.mtgprice.com (free) and www.bidwicket.com (also free). These sites are your friends, and can make your buylisting experience much easier, however none of these sites all the buylists I use, so I generally end up using a combination of these sites and individual vendors websites.

Second, the condition of cards is very important in buylisting, but how specific vendors determine condition is often subjective. Some vendors grade easier then others in general, others grade tougher on high-end cards then low end (or visa-versa), some lump SP and NM together, and yet others require near perfection to get full buylist price for you cards. What this means that in choosing which buylist to send a card to, there is more to consider then just the price listed on the buylist. For me this means using a vendor-specific grading multipliers, which varies from as low as 0.60 to as high as 0.90. These numbers have been averaged over the hundreds of buylist orders I have sent, so they are generally accurate within a couple percentage points

The grading multiplier is the process I use to estimate the post-value of cards before they are shipped or graded. I keep track of all my buylist orders on a spreadsheet laid out as follows:

Column A: Vendor Name

Column B: Order Date/#

Column C: Quoted (pre-grading) price

Column D: Expected Post-Grading Price(C1M=EP)

Column E: Running total of all outstanding orders.

*Column 1 times grading multiplier equals expected (post-grading) price

The grading multiplier assumes a “typical” collection condition wise. In my experience buying collections from Craigslist, most collections range from NM to HP. The multipliers works well for medium to large collections of mid-to-low value cards, but it should not be used for buylists consisting of only a few high end cards (i.e. if I’m selling $500 of cards consisting entirely of Revised duals, I don’t use the multiplier – I grade each card individually to compute my expected post-grading price).

A quick example if I send a $100 dollar order to a vendor with a grading multiplier of 0.90, my expected total would be $90 (100*0.9). If I send that same order to a vendor with a multiplier of 0.625, I would expect payment of $62.50. If you are only selling NM cards from your personal collection, the grading multiplier is probably not very necessary for you, but if you are flipping collections or varying condition, the grading multiplier is extremely important. For instance, you have a pile of cards you can sell to vendor X (who has a 0.9 grading multiplier) for $500 and vendor Y (with a 0.75 grading multiplier) for $550. You are actually better off selling the cards to vendor X for $50 less, when you consider the actual amount you expect to receive post grading is $37.50 higher then you would expect from vendor Y. Anyway, enough of my rambling, on to the buylists.

Card Kingdom:
http://www.cardkingdom.com/purchasing/mtg_singles

CK is at or near the top of my buylist order. Not only do they typically purchase more cards then anyone else, they also offer a 30 percent store credit bonus – the highest in the industry. In my experience, CK usually pays the best, or close to it for high end cards ($20 through dual lands) and very low-end cards (sometimes offering a nickle to a dime for specific bulk-level commons).

Another great thing about CK is that the are often purchase the highest number of any specific cards (seriously, yesterday CK was in the market for 1,404 Monastery Swiftspears). This is especially important if you “go deep” on a cheap bulk level spec which rises in value, because minimizing your shipping costs is a simply way to help maximize your value.

CK has solid customer service, however, unlike some buylists, once you ship your cards they belong to CK (some other buylists, as you will see, contact the seller after grading and offer to return the order either for free or for a s/h fee, which reduces risk to sellers). However, CK is among the most consistent graders, and although they do not have a published grading chart (like SCG, for example) they seem to grade cards in a manner similar to myself and most players I know – if you think it looks SP, CK is probably going to grade it SP, if you think it look NM, they are probably going to grade it NM, etc.

Of note is the fact that CK will not buy any (non-promo/dual deck) foils, and will not by any signed cards, even with a condition deduction. It doesn’t matter if its a signed Revised dual or signed Storm Crow, don’t even try it – they will send it back.

The grading multiplier I use for CK is 0.78, and almost every order (out of the 100+ in the past 5 years) has come in between 0.80 and 0.76.

One last tip about CK. While most buylists require you to type the full name of a card exactly (which is a pain in the ass for a card like Will-O’-The-Wisp) the CK buylist allows for abbreviations. For example, are you trying to get out from under that Sorin, Solemn Visitor while its high? All you need to do is inter “so s v” in the search bar, and up pops Sorin. While this might not seem like a big deal, when you are entering 100’s of cards, every bit of typing you can cut out saves you time and makes you money. They also have a running buylist cart on the same screen as the search bar, which makes it faster and easier to correct any mistakes (for instance, typos in quantity) which combine to make CK the most efficient site to use.

In sum. I always check CK for high end and low end cards, although they are sometimes weak in their pricing of $1-3 dollar casual rares. Their consistent and logical grading makes it easy to calculate post grading values, they pay fast, and offer the highest store credit bonus. One of my favorites.

Troll and Toad:

https://www.trollandtoad.com/buylist/#/

T&T used to be among my most used buylists, simply because they paid the most for bulk (which they still do in some categories – you can’t beat $0.60 for bulk mythics or $1.05 for foil mythics if you are trying to move a stack of Time Reversals or DD Phyrexian Negators). However, in recent months prices on most bulk categories have dropped significantly, putting T&T below the market rate on things like bulk c/u and bulk rares.

This does not mean that T&T is useless, because while they don’t often pay the most for cards they are, in my experience, the best buylist to sell played cards. While I’m not sure if it is intentional or accidental, about half of my orders to T&T fetch full buylist price, even with some cards are in played condition. When there are grading deductions, I still generally end up with 80 percent of buylist price for the order.

This inconsistency in grading makes it a bit difficulty to compute the grading multiplier, which I have at 0.90, but in reality, about half the time I get 100 percent of buylist value, and the other half I get 80. So although 0.90 evens out in the long run, it is not always correct for any specific order. However, a 25 percent credit bonus helps to make up for this inconsistency, if that is what you are looking for.

T&T also gets points for contacting the seller with any post-grading deductions and offering to return the order, at their cost, if the seller so desires (seriously, one time I had a large flat rate break open during shipping – it arrived at T&T in a garbage bag – and they repackaged and shipped it back to me on their dime). They also respond quickly to emails, so they get an A++ for customer service in my book.

Finally, the T&T buylist page was recently redone, and the upgrades are amazing. A few months ago T&T was among the hardest buylists to use, consisting of a massive word-like document of all the cards they were buying (which is especially a pain for selling cards like Dark Ritual with many editions, or foils). However, their new site is world class, easy to use, and way more efficient. While CK is still my favorite buylist to use in terms of functionality, T&T is now a close second.

In sum, always check T&T for played cards due to their high grading multiplier, and keep an eye on their bulk rates, because at times they are far and above everyone else.

Star City Games:

http://www.starcitygames.com/

(need free account to access buylist)

SCG seems to pay less for most cards simply because they can (just like they can charge more). However, if they really want a card, they are apt to outpace the rest of the buylist market. They still offer $0.10 for bulk rares (which used to be standard) and also pay $7.00 for bulk basic lands, which tops the market.

One of the quirks of SCG is that they want you to grade your own cards. If you do, they will generally stick to your grading and pay you the quoted price (there is a massive chart on their buylist page showing you how to deduce yourself for various conditions, along with a visual of how they grade cards). If you just mark everything as NM and make them grade your cards, they are generally less kind and pile on more deductions, so it is worth it to take the time and actually try to grade your own stuff – especially considering how inefficient their buylist process is anyways.

Because of this self-grading, I don’t use a multiplier for SCG, I just grade-as-I-go, and if I honestly grade my cards by their standard, I usually get the full price. They offer what is becoming the standard 25 percent store credit bonus, so be sure to check that out if you are looking to trade cards for cards.

A moment ago I said that the SCG buylisting process was inefficient, so now time for a little rant. Seriously, SCG – you are the biggest vendor in the magic world, and you have by far the most inefficient, archaic buylisting process. It is literally a document, where you not only have to ctrl-f to search for cards, but then you have to type out your own buylist (sell: Griselbrand – NM -Avacyn Restored – x2 @$8.00 = $16.00) and email it to buyer@starcitygames.com . If you have played cards, you need to ctrl-F the card, then scroll to the chart at the top of the page, figure out the deduction for condition, and then type it out. SCG is by far the slowest, most inefficient site to buylist on, which sometimes leads to me not even checking their prices, simply because it takes too long.

Finally, SCG customer service is (unsurprisingly) world class. They will email with any deductions and offer to return the order if you are unhappy. They pay fast and are friendly. Basically, the cream of the crop in dealing with customers.

In sum, hard to use and often low-paying due to market leader status, I use SCG less then many other buylists simply because it is not time-efficient. If they would upgrade their buylist site, I would at least check their prices along with others, but unless I’ve got a lot of time on my hand, its usually not economical. This said, their killer customer service and the ability to know exactly how much you’re payment will be (due to the grade-it-yourself system) do offer benefits, as does some of their bulk rates.

ABU:

http://abugames.com/buylist.html

ABU runs another world-class buylist, with some benefits that no other vendor offers. For on thing, they run a modified version of the SCG grade-it-yourself system (albeit with a much easier to use site) that only has two grade Near Mint and Played. Prices for both conditions are listed, and you simply click and options. The benefit for the seller is that, with only two grades, a SP card often falls into the NM catergory, so a few slight imperfections are not help against you at all price wise.

Like SCG, I don’t use a grading multiplier for ABU – if you honestly grade as you go, you can expect to get full price in most cases. Be aware, however, the difference between NM prices and played prices is sometimes drastic, so just because ABU is paying most for a NM card, if you can’t honestly grade it as NM, you might want to check elsewhere.

ABU often pays well for several categories of cards: 1. newly release standard cards (and sometime shot standard cards as well). 2. Rarities (ranging from promos to artist proofs) and 3. Foreign Cards. These last two categories, especially foreign cards are especially important, since in many cases ABU is the only site that buylist these cards.

While SCG will purchase foreign cards (usually) for the same price as an English card, ABU actually individually prices a huge number of cards by language, and in many cases the price is higher for foreign cards then for the English version. For example, ABU buys many bulk standard c/u in foreign languages for between 0.03 to 0.07 cents each – which is significantly higher then bulk.

ABU also prices out individual foil basic lands, and is often paying the most, especially for basics with in-demand art, so its worth checking before selling them off in bulk.

ABU also has solid customer service, pays quickly and will inform the customer of any deductions and offer to return the order (although, again, if you grade your own cards, this will rarely if ever come up). Their website is fine, and functional, with my only tip being that if you are looking for bulk you need to type “bulk” in the search bar because I’ve never been able to find a separate bulk category listed among the sets.

In sum, I always check ABU for rarities and foils, and standard cards. They offer the standard 25 percent trade in bonus, and since they are one of the few sites with a large collection of rarities, you can potentially trade your pile of standard rares for a signed artist proof or graded Alpha Demonic Tutor. Fun stuff.


Gaming ETC:

http://searchbuylist.gamingetc.com/Buylist.html

We are not getting to the area of buylists that I regularly use, but mostly for very specific purposes, so I probably won’t write as much about these sites, instead sticking to the important details.

While ETC has competitive pricing in general, there is one weird quirk while puts ETC ahead for one specific category of cards – old bordered bulk rares. For some reason, ETC loves to purchase bulk rares from Revised through Masques, rares that no other buylist even lists, for between $0.15 and $0.35 each. You still need to type the names into the search bar, and they are not purchasing every bulk rares from these sets, but they are always purchasing a large number, and getting $0.25 for that Revised Dingus Egg is far better then bulking it for $0.10.

At the same time, ETC usually does not pay well for commons or uncommons, often offering $0.02 for cards other companies are buying for five or ten times as much (although in my experience, if you have playsets you are almost always better off selling these cards on eBay).

ETC has a grading multiplier of 0.87, and in many cases does not deduct for played cards – instead of offering a reduced price, they ship them back to you free of charge, which is actually nice because you can resell them. With some high end cards they will offer a reduced price, but if you are usually using them to sell the old bulk rares I mentioned earlier, they generally accepts 9 out of 10 cards, and ship back the other 1 out of 10, so the grading multiplier could actually be a little higher, simply because you can still resell the cards they return.

ETC always pays, but they occasionally pay slower by check then other buylist, and they also charge $3 for check payment, so paypal is usually the way to go. They do not offer a store credit bonus that I know of, and as of today, their website buylist is “down for inventory” which I would suspect is temporary, because they are a fairly well established vendor, but I guess you never know.

Anyway, in sum. Always check for old bulk rares, and try to avoid taking the check payment because of the fee.

ChannelFireball:

http://store.channelfireball.com/buylist

I don’t really have much to say about CFB one way or the other. I do use their buylist on occasion, and have found that their grading can be tough-ish, with a multiplier of 0.75. This tough grading is especially true for just above bulk played cards, so CFB is probably not the place to sent your 100 played Mogg Fanatics for $0.05 each.

I haven’t really found a specific grouping of cards that CFB pays the most for, although they are sometimes high on mid-price ($4-$10) casual/EDH rares. CFB customer service is great, and they do contact buyers about grading deductions, so no worries that.

Strikezone:

http://shop.strikezoneonline.com/Buy_List.html

I have shipped a few different order to Strikezone over the years, and every time the order has been return to me, minus a card or two for shipping due to condition issues. I would then sell these cards to another site and receive the standard grading multiplier deductions.

This is not to say anything bad about SZ, because they are often the highest paying site for a large percentage of cards. But at this point I would not send SZ order unless the cards are above-and-beyond mint, like literally out-of-a-pack-and-into-a-hard-case mint.

I’m not blaming SZ, I blame myself for not understanding their grading standards, but every time I send an order I end up losing $10 in shipping when it’s returned, so personally its not worth the hassle for me. However, I have heard from other people that if your cards are very-mint, then SZ is great.

In sum, I’m not saying to avoid SZ, but watch your conditions carefully.

MTGFanatic:

http://www.mtgfanatic.com/store/buylist.aspx

In most cases, FAN is paying even more then Strikezone for an even wider range of cards. Trouble is, it often takes 6 months to get paid for an order (although, in all fairness, I have never not been pain eventually).

FAN only offers two categories for buylisted cards: NM and played, and then return, at the sellers expense (generally $5+ dollars) any cards that do not meet their subjective criteria. Worse yet, I have never really figure out how they grade cards, sometimes I get what I see as very mint cards returned, other times cards that I almost don’t even bother sending them (because I’m afraid they will get returned) slip through as NM. All things considered, I multiply my FAN orders by 0.60 (although it is worth understanding that with FAN you either get full buylists price or you get the card sent back. So the grading multiplier really says that I have found about half of the cards in an order get accepted and the other half get sent back).

I have a hard time recommending FAN just because of the long-payment window. If you don’t mind having your money tied up for months to make a few extra bucks, go for it, but just be aware that selling to FAN comes with a high opportunity cost.

In Sum

The above list is the sites I commonly use (or used) to buylist. Currently, I sell to some combination of Card Kingdom, Troll and Toad, and ABU most often. I also sell to ECT, ChannelFireball, and SCG on occasion, especially when I have a collection that happens to consist of things they usually pay well for. I used to use Fanatic and Strikezone, but for the types of cards I generally buylist, I have found that these vendors were not for me (again, this is not to say you should not use them – judge for yourself).

Shipping

You have a few options when shipping to buylist. 1.) Ship with a stamp, which is fine for about 4 cards in a hard shell, although you don’t get tracking, so use this method at your own risk. 2.) Ship 1st class, which is often inefficient unless you happen to be in the perfect weight/size/location sweet-spot. 3.) Ship small flat rate box/envelope. You can fix more cards in the envelope of you wrap them in stacks of 80-100 (although I have an understanding postmaster who lets things like the “don’t change the shape of the envelope” rule slide a bit), but the small box which holds between 350-500 offers more protection. 4.) Ship medium flat rate box, which I count as holding 5,000 cards and never had a buyer disagree.

Basically, options 1 and 2 or only efficient when you are selling between 4 and maybe 100 cards (depending on your location and the location you are shipping to). Once you get past the 100, using option 3 is almost always the more efficient then paying for first class shipping. Between 700 and 1000 (again location dependent) there may be another sweet spot for first class, but then over 1000 your a pretty much locked into option 4.

What this means is you want to avoid shipping the orders that are of inefficient numbers of cards. For example, you can ship 5,000 cards in a medium flat rate for the same cost as shipping 1,500 cards. So if you have an order in the 1,500 card-range, thinking about throwing in some bulk to take advantage of what amount to free shipping for an extra 3,500 cards.

Avoid situations where you are shipping 200 cards to 7 different vendors if possible – you are paying inefficient flat-rate prices (since the small box/envelope is only one-half or one-third full). Sometimes I even hold off until I have another collection to sell (assuming I’m selling stable-priced, non-spikinging cards) to ship together. Most of the buylists give you a week to ship your order, so if you can stick another order in the box in that time frame, you are making both order more efficient, and in the long run saving yourself significant money.

Basically, aware that shipping is a cost of buylisting, and avoid inefficient shipping points whenever possible. It is always better to make $2 less on an order, if it saves you $5 in shipping.

Conclusions:

Just to be clear, if I did not mention a buylists, its not because its bad, or because you should not use it, its simply that I have not used it enough to have anything meaningful to say about it. If you have any questions, or suggestion for another article, be sure to ask. Oh, and sorry about the two part format – I couldn’t figure out a way to say everything I wanted to and still fit in under the reddit character limit.

More on Prophetic Flamespeaker

My post here yesterday regarding my belief that Prophetic Flamespeaker is a good buy certainly stirred up the community and produced some good conversation, so over all I would consider it a success, but I can’t help but feeling like I could have explained myself better, which is what I want to do now.

Prophetic Flamespeaker

1. The Grand Prix San Antonio Trial deck list is what brought Prophetic Flamespeaker to my attention, but it is not the reason I feel the card is a good investment. In all reality, after spending its first 9 months in standard seeing minimal play, the odds that Flamespeaker becomes an x4 staple is minimal, 10 or 15 percent, and maybe less.

2. Flamespeaker doesn’t need to be an x4 staple to increase in price in the longer term. I went back and looked over the current prices of spring set mythics over the entire history of the mythic rarity. Discounting standard legal sets and the recently rotated Dragon’s Maze, there are 50 spring set mythics from Alara Reborn through Avacyn Restored. 38 of these cards are currently worth four dollars or more.

Of the 12 cards (20 percent of spring set mythics) worth less than $4, two have been reprinted in Commander decks, six are from the not-that-old Avacyn Restored, and four are just underpowered (think: Cast Through Time).

If you narrow the search to small spring set mythics, you have a total of 20 cards from Alara Reborn and New Phyrexia. Of these twenty, 18 have a single printing, and only two of these 18 are worth less than $4 (Defiler of Souls and Etched Monstrosity).

Admittedly, I don’t know exact print runs, so the fact that such a low number of mythics from spring sets stay at Prophetic Flamespeaker price levels over the long-term is not necessarily predictive for the Human Shaman. Maybe there is far more JOU in print than NPH, despite the fact that NPH was powerful and rather liked (from what I remember) and JOU is underpowered and disliked. But all in all it seems likely that, without a reprinting, Flamespeaker will be at least $4 in two or three years.

3. A good number of the mythics from spring sets that are now $6-$12 dollars were $2-$3 during their standard life, so it’s not simply that these past mythics with higher price tags are more powerful or inherently more valuable than Flamespeaker.

4. I mentioned the negative spread on Prophetic Flamespeaker. I was not trying to suggest you should look to make a profit by buying from one vendor for $1.69 and selling to another at $2.01, at $0.30 cent per copy, its not really worth the work. But the spread has more value than arbitrage opportunities.

The average spread on standard mythics is somewhere in the in the neighborhood of 35 percent. Just like the EV of an in-print booster box cannot maintain a price that is higher than the cost of the box, a card cannot maintain a negative spread. Vendors will adjust their pricing, and over the long term the spread will trend back towards the average. All this to say, the negative spread suggests that Flamespeaker is due for a price adjustment.

5. I always try to be aware of the opportunity costs of my speculations. This is the main reason why I didn’t “go deep” on 50 or 100 copies of Flamespeaker. I believe the odds are strongly in favor of Flamespeaker increasing in price eventually, and being $4+ in three years, but I also value having my hypothetical “100 copies of Flamespeaker” cash to use on other speculations during the next 36 months.

For me, buying two or three sets is the sweet spot for Flamespeaker. If I hits the 10 percenter, and Flamespeaker becomes a standard staple, I going be be very glad I bought in. Over the long term, its hard for me to imagine a unique, powerful, and (fringe) eternal playable mythic from an under-opened set being $2, so I’m happy to have some number of copies on hand, without incurring too much of an opportunity cost. And if I’m total wrong? I get out of them for $1 and lose $0.50 per copy. Very little risk, if opportunity costs are controlled.

6. Some people took issue with my calling Prophetic Flamespeaker “modern playable” or “eternal playable.” To me, playable isn’t a subjective statement, it’s an objective analysis of deck lists. Since Flamespeaker was an x4 in an deck that won a event, and showed up in various quantities in a handful of other decks in other tournaments, its playable in my book.

I’m not suggesting its the next Tarmogoyf, but Flamespeaker is of a power level that makes it modern playable. I know this because people its been played.

7. I mentioned this in the forums. Don’t buy a card because I (or any other financier) buys it, or tells you to. Use my evidence and thoughts as a jumping off point to form your own opinions and learn to the data and tools available to see why a card is, or is not, a good purchase. My goal is to share well-evidenced and statistically based opinions. Your job is to think for yourself.

Anyways, I hope this makes a bit more sense.

That’s all for tonight. I’m going to hit up a VMA 8-4 before heading to bed, I should have the second part of the Cognitive Bias in MTG Finance piece on www.mtggoldfish.com in the next day or two, it’s written, I’m just softening the rough edges.

 

Apparently Powercreep Isn’t a Part of Everything…

Progenitus

During my last cube draft I found myself thinking about fow absurd is it that a 10/10 protection from everything is pretty close to unplayable (and unplayed) in every format. Not that long ago,Progenitus was likely the best creature to Show and Tell into play on T2, or Natural Order off of some elf mana on T3. But no longer.

Since people are still sneaking and showing and natural ordering (like at an organic deli, *rim shot*), this means that, since Progenitus was printed 5 years ago, it has simply been outclassed by new cards. And this is true, WOTC has printed not one, but two creatures which are apparently (judging by level-of-play) better than a two-turn clock that is nigh unkillable. To be fair, the five-color mana cost is part of the issue, but only a very small part. It’s not like Sneak and Show or Elves were casting Progenitus anyway.

The first of these Progenitus replacements is obvious:
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn

I’m not sure Emrakul should have been printed, but it’s pretty easy to see why its better than Progenitus. The flying spaghetti monster gives up a bit of Progenitus’s protections (things like Jace and Oblivion Ring are considered to be part of everything, but are not colored spells), but gains the ability to annihilate an opponents entire board. While it is theoretically possible (although difficult) to race a Progenitus with something like a Umezawa’s Jitte and a couple Tarmogoyfs, Emrakul is pretty much impossible to beat attack step v. attack step.

Craterhoof Behemoth

The second replacement for Progenitus is not as obvious, but is no less a part of the Hydra Avatar’s demise in competitive magic. In a deck like Legacy Elves, Hoof has two big advantages. First, instead of taking two (or even three) turns to kill an opponent, the Behemoth most often accomplishes this in zero. Second, Elves can actually cast Craterhoof from its hand, with some combination of Llanowar Elves and Gaea’s Cradle. In the old days, there was no worse feeling as an elves player than naturally drawing your one-of Progenitus. It was literally the same as skipping your draw step, and maybe even worse due to the psychological deflation that comes along with it.

The final nail in Progenitus’s price coffin was being printed in Modern Masters – with no competitive play to help its price recover, even being printed as a mythic in a limited release was enough to drop Progenitus from $17.5 to $11 – and prices are still on the decline.

The point is…:

We are living in a time of magic’s history where power creep on creatures is a very real thing (spells, on the other hand, are pretty safe at this point, so don’t be expecting a two-mana Show and Tell anytime soon). Just because Hoof and Emrakul are the best things to cheat into play right now, does not mean that they will be after FRF releases in a couple months, or when M16 releases next summer.

I was just looking over a list http://www.metamox.com/format-analytics.php?format=legacy of the most played cards in legacy. I found myself thinking, “they can’t print something better than Bob, or Goyf, or Thalia, or Snapcaster…they are already as efficient as possible.”

And this may be true, but I bet, if I was looking over this list a few years ago, I would have though, “Progenitus? That is going to be the best Show and Tell target like, forever….” (notice the “like,” apparently a few years ago I talked like a teen girl from The Hills).

Expensive creatures that are cheated into play seem to be most at risk of being outclassed, simply because with these creatures, mana cost really doesn’t matter. Emrakul could have 100 written (or 1,000,000) in the upper right corner, and it would still see the same amount of play (well, almost, 12-Post would be pissed).

The other wild card in the situation is a potential MM2 this summer. While competitive mythics from Modern Masters rebounded quickly, there is no guarantee that MM2 will be as limited a printing (actually, it’s almost guaranteed not to be as limited). This means more copies of Emrakul (assuming he makes the cut) in the market, a sharper decline in princes, and longer recovery period – if prices recover at all.

In short: nothing is safe anymore. Long-term investments in MTG are becoming increasingly risky.

Legacy may or may not being dying.

Wurmcoil is in COM14.

Modern staples are being reprinted willy-nilly.

Fetches in KTK.

MM2 on the horizon.

And apparently powercreep isn’t a part of everything.

Prophetic Mardu Takes Down GPT

Sideboard (15)

2 Crackling Doom

Comments:
Prophetic Flamespeaker is from the right set JOU (small, spring) to see big gains with x4 play. After no small amount of hype at release, Flamespeaker has mostly been relegated to x1 status in tier 2 mono-red aggro decks, and even in these decks, he is no sure conclusion. Perhaps this is changing with the success (albeit in a trial) of the above list.

Flamespeaker is currently at an all time low. You can buy from vendors for as low as $1.79. He also boasts a negative spread, with the best buylist price being $2.01.

Persuaded by the fact that Flamespeaker, at various times, has seen fringe modern play, and has potential to show up in the format again, sooner or later, I just picked up two play sets, even if the Prophetic Mardu deck goes no where, all the other signs point to Flamespeaker being a solid buy at the moment.