The difference is, instead of just talking about the card, the cool art, playability, or whatever, we will be focused specifically on the financial aspects of the card. What this means exactly will vary from card to card, but there are three things I do (or don’t) want this feature to be.
1. Saffron’s Card of the Day will not be whatever card happens to have spiked the most in the past day. This information is already easily available in several places, so if that’s what you want head to the Movers and Shakers on goldfish, or interests on MTGPrice, or whatever financial site you like the best.
2. Saffron’s Card of the Day, at least in most cases, is not intended to be a feature stating “buy card X now” or “sell card X today.” Instead, the goal is examine the price history and/or potentials of a semi-random card and see what we can learn.
3 . Saffron’s Card of the Day is intended to be a discussion starter. Since it’s pretty difficult to have a meaningful discussion with myself, please let your voice be heard. While I hope that you learn something from reading my thoughts, opinions, and research, I also want to learn from more of you. Also, if there is a specific card you want feature on Card of the Day, let me know, and I’ll do my best to make it happen.
I’m sure I’ll add some more criteria to this list as we go along, but those are the big three right now. On to the very first ever Saffron’s Card of the Day:
As I was looking over the price history of Rings, I started asking myself, should I have been buying in on Rings a few years ago? Did I miss this one? Did I make a bad decision in 2012? The card is up nearly 500 percent in three years after all and Ring of Brightheart is a unique and very cool, a card that seems like a obvious, no-brain, slam-dunk in EDH and on kitchen tables. It’s also from a pre-boom, pre-commander set, so there are comparatively few copies of Rings in the market.
Now, I’ve talking in some of my goldfish articles about various cognitive biases which can effect our financial decisions, including the hindsight bias. Of course Rings of the Brightheart seems like an obvious buy now, but was buying the card in 2011 or 2012 the right decision then?
In all honesty, I’m torn. Holding casual-only cards like Rings for years has become an increasingly risky proposition with annual commander decks and a focus on reprinting expensive cards, but this really wasn’t the case (at least to the same extent it is now) in 2011. Sure, there were reprints, but Rings, at the time $1-$2 rare wasn’t exactly screaming “reprint me NOW!”
On the other hand, it seems all to clear that this card would increase in price if it wasn’t not reprinted. I mean, why wouldn’t it? Colorless, combo-piece, janky as hell, doubling things-n-stuff – Its text box is basically a supreme pizza of casual goodness – Its got everything on it.
But, at the same time, I have no idea why it hasn’t been reprinted yet. It could easily be slotted into a Standard legal set (see: Illusionist’s Bracers.) It also seems like a good choice for the commander series (by the way, how did RIngs dodge Built from Scratch? Too much value in one deck?), or even just some random supplemental product.
Obviously, looking over the price history, I wish I had bought in. Any time a card increases in value (and against-the-odds, dodges reprinting) I end up wishing I bough it, but I’m still not convinced buying is at or before December 2012 was the right decision at the time. Decision making cannot be judged solely on the results, because, most often, we don’t know the results when we are making a decision.
Sure, Rings would have been a great buy, but if I try to put myself into the body of December, 2012 Saffron, I’m pretty sure he would have pegged this cards at $1 now as the result of some sort of reprinting. So I believe 2012 Saffron made the right call by not buying Rings, even if it looks like a bad choice now.
So what about Bracers? It’s just above bulk and seeing nearly as much Commander play as Rings of Brightheart? There are, without a doubt, way more copies of any Gatecrash rare than a Lorywn rare, so that’s a big strike against Bracers being the next Rings price-wise, and it’s just so uncomfortable to be holding cards for year and years in the current reprinting environment. I learned this lesson in earnest when I published a piece on kitchen table price trajectories a week before Commander 2014 spoiler, only to see close to half the cards I mentioned get reprinted. This said, Bracers is basically bulk, so apart from opportunity costs, there is little risk involved in buying in, although this one isn’t for me, because it seems unlikely to ever be a big winner due to the current atmosphere of aggressive reprintings, despite its inherent coolness and Commander playability.
Personally, one year or less is my timeframe for holding non-reserve list singles at this point and I can’t imagine Bracers increasing enough to post a profit after shipping and fees in that timeframe.
As for Rings, I just can’t imaging avoiding the combination of Modern Masters 2015, Magic 2016, and Commander 2015, I just can’t. Once that happens, it’s back to the drawing board, with a ton of copies in the market.
So what do you think? Did you buy in on Rings? If not, with the hindsight bias in mind, should you have? Let me know in the comments, or on Twitter.
Also, for all your /r/mtgfinance peeps out there, is this something you want to see posted regularly? I like putting piece on reddit, due to the discussion the (usually) generate in the sub, but I also don’t want to abuse the privilege, so give me your thoughts.
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