Modern Masters 2015 is still all the rage in the #mtgfinance community (you can read my initial thoughts here), but we still know very little about the set, too little to make many solid evaluations. Probably the most important thing we do know is that nothing past New Phyrexia will be printed in the set. A quick look back at the original MMA reminds us that the cut-off the first time around was Zendikar block, at this time of year in 2012 was fairly recently rotated from standard.
1. This means that, at least as far as seasonal and rotational cycles, Zendikar block is to MMA what Return to Ravnica block is to MM2015.
It’s common knowledge that the best time to buy new Modern (or Legacy) cards is within a few months of their rotation from standard. I won’t bother rehashing the reasons why, because they are fairly well known and understood.
This means that, even without the MM2015 announcement, it is already the right time to be buying eternal playables from RTR block. If anything, we are getting close to the end of the window, as most tournament cards bottom somewhere between rotation and the release of the winter set.
While there are quite a few eternal cards in Return to Ravnica block, today we are going to focus exclusively on the Shock lands, with the help of the price trajectories of the Fetch lands during the year after Zendikar’s rotation from standard.
2. While ZEN is to MMA what RTR is to MM2015, there is more RTR in print.
If you look back over the price histories of Zendikar block, you’ll find that most Modern playables (including the Fetchland cycle) bottomed between rotation and the release of Mirrodin Besiged, started slowing creeping up through the Spring of 2013, and then doubled in price from when MMA released and November 2013 (and then many of these cards spiked even higher around the time of GP Richmond.)
This said, being the “most opened set in history” limits the potential of RTR block when compared to Zendikar. WOTC is notorious for not releasing print runs, so its hard to say just how many more Shocks there are than Fetches, or how many more Sphinx’s Revelations there are than Iona’s, but rest assured, there are more, and likely magnitudes more.
Shocks in particular present a problem. While all the Zendikar fetches more then doubled in price between October 2012 and October 2013, not only did they have the Modern explosion from MMA, but also Legacy demand, as well as the benefits of only having a single printing in an early-growth period set. Shocks, on the other hand, have 2.5 printings (counting the Dragon’s Maze copies of the RTR and GTC shocks as a half a printing), have little Legacy demand, and are found in middle-to-late growth period set. They are also less-played in Modern than fetches, generally being one-or-two ofs, rather than four-ofs.
As such, when you look at the big pictures, it seems hard to argue that shocks can experience the same amount of growth as fetches did post-rotation. This said, it also seems very likely that shocks are still a great buy at the moment.
3. So where are Shocks going to be in a year?
Zendikar fetches increased, on average 170 percent in their year following their rotation. Scalding Tarn went from $18 to $50, even the lowly Marsh Flats went from $12 to $32. If we translated a 170 percent increase into Shock values, we would be looking at prices in the low-to-mid $20’s next fall.
But again, Shocks are not fetches.
So what if we assume, based on all the factors we talked about a few moments ago (DGM printing, original Ravnica block printing, coming from a more opened set, seeing less play in both modern and legacy) Shocks increase at half the rate of Fetches. This would give us an increase of 85 percent rather than 170 percent. Based on the current $8-$10 price range on shocks, this would mean a year from now, prices would be in the mid-to-high teens. Which definitely seems worth buying into.
The less profitable alternative is if, instead of growing at half the rate of Fetches, Shocks only grow at a quarter of the rate, and increase 42 percent. This would give us prices between $12 and $14. While this still represents a profit, if you think about opportunity cost, shipping, and fees, buying in at $9 and selling for $13 is by no means a slam dunk (and also eliminates buylists as an option for moving your Shocks, because with a typical 30 percent spread, you would be making in the neighborhood of $0.10 a piece for a not-insignificant investment).
4. So the question is, do you believe Shocks are half as good as Fetches?
Personally, I believe they are, and as a result, I’m expecting mid-to-high teen prices for Shocks by next fall, but this is a question you need to ask and answer for yourself, based on the evidence and your feelings about the potential growth in the Modern format as a result of MM2015. If you don’t feel confidant that Shock can and will grow at half the rate of Fetches (or more), than you shouldn’t buy in.
P.S. If you decide to buy in, BUY THE ORIGINALS.
Now, take this with a grain of stale, because I’m a sucker for original printing personally, but I’m only interested in buying Shocks from the original Ravnica block. Apart from my bias against reprints, the general consensus seems to be that the art is better, and from a pragmatic standpoint, there are far fewer in circulation.
Plus, they only cost a dollar or two more than the RTR versions, which seems crazy.
You can buy a KTK Polluted Delta for about $15, but if you want an ONS copy, it’s going to cost you closer to $50 (I realize KTK to ONS is more different than RAV to RTR ascetically, but still). At the same time, you can buy a Gatecrash Breeding Pool for $9 ,but you can get the much better looking and rarer Dissension version for $10? This doesn’t really make much sense. Why would you not be the originals when the prices are practically the same?
Anyway, that’s all for today. I have a piece ready to go at http://www.mtggoldfish.com comparing holding sealed booster boxes to investing in mutual funds. It should be out soon, so make sure to check it out.
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