Saffron’s Card of the Day (12/18): Goblin Rabblemaster

Set: Magic 2015

Release Date: June, 2014

Set Info: Big, Summer, Core set

Where it Sees Play: Everywhere in Standard, in a few places in Modern and Legacy (more on this in a minute).

Price: $13.50. Up from $1 post M15 release. Down from $19.80 October 8.

Spread: 43 percent.

 

By now, we all know that Rabblemaster is good in standard, and it currently has a price tag that back this up. Thing is, we are getting closing in on the time of year when Standard cards peak and start their decline to rotation (and Rabblemaster may have peaked already). Mutavault, the most expensive rare in Magic 2014, peaked on January 21 last year at $36.50, hung around $35 for about a month, before starting to decline by the end of February. Today, Mutavault is $13.

Now, of course, Mutavault to Rabblemaster is not a perfect comparison. While Rabblemaster has proved to be perhaps equally powerful, Mutavault, being both a land and colorless, fits in so many decks, it’s not fair to simply say “because X happened to Mutavault, X will happen to Rabblemaster.”

At the same time, people are testing out Rabblemaster in both Modern and Legacy, which is a good thing for the goblins price post-rotation. In Modern, it took down a MTGO daily as a 3-of out of the board in Burn while in Legacy it has been a one of in various red stompy deck along with some random build of Sneak and Show and Jund.

Admittedly, this if fringe play. By the numbers, Rabblemaster sees about one-tenth of Mutavault’s play in Legacy and one-twentieth in Modern. This doesn’t mean that these numbers won’t go up in the future – not every cards can be a Deathrite Shaman that immediately breaks eternal formats. Some cards take the Stongeforge Mystic path, being obviously powerful, but missing something (for Stoneforge, Batterskull).

Given that the power is there (evidence by the fact that people are playing it), the question is, what could make Rabblemaster into a Stoneforge? The first thing that came to my mind is the unbanning of Bloodbraid Elf in Modern. Cascading into Rabblemaster seems almost as good as cascading into Liliana, and maybe even better in an aggressive build.

It’s also possible that a resurgence in Legacy Goblin could help Rabblemaster, but I’m not really sure the deck wants it (although it hard to tell at this point because no one is playing Goblin’s at the moment – you know when Cedric puts down the deck that it’s really in a bad place.)

For now, I’m treating Rabblemaster as a Standard staple with a bit of post-rotaiton potential, but it’s not a card that I feel comfortable holding through rotation, it just doesn’t see enough play, plus it’s a rare. I will, however, be keeping and eye on eternal deck lists, because the potential is there for Rabblemaster. Maybe not as a format staple, but as a player.

Finally, it’s worth noting that foil Rabblemasters are pretty inexpensive at the moment, having a foil multiplier of somewhere about 1.25. While this is likely a result of the Buy-A-Box promo, it’s still a bit strange, because normal foils version of other playable BOB promos including Surgical Extraction, Restoration Angel, Supreme Verdict, and Eidolon of Blossems all have a low-but-typical multiplier between 1.8 and 3. While $20 is still a lot to pay for a card that should be reaching it peak in a month or so (if it has not peaked already), it’s something else to keep an eye on, because eternal players love their foils.

Anyway, what’s your opinion of Rabblemasters post-rotation prospects? What else could happen to increase its level of play in Modern and Legacy? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter.

 

 

 

Saffron’s Card of the Day: Rings of Brighthearth

So, I was up last night thinking of ideas for a daily feature here on the magic blog and while I will still be publishing long-form, data driven pieces as often as I have something to write about both on goldfish and here, I’ve decided to start posting a daily Card of the Day piece inspired by both Gerry Thompson’s daily decks and the card of the day feature on the mothership .

The difference is, instead of just talking about the card, the cool art, playability, or whatever, we will be focused specifically on the financial aspects of the card. What this means exactly will vary from card to card, but there are three things I do (or don’t) want this feature to be.

1. Saffron’s Card of the Day will not be whatever card happens to have spiked the most in the past day. This information is already easily available in several places, so if that’s what you want head to the Movers and Shakers on goldfish, or interests on MTGPrice, or whatever financial site you like the best.

2. Saffron’s Card of the Day, at least in most cases, is not intended to be a feature stating “buy card X now” or “sell card X today.” Instead, the goal is examine the price history and/or potentials of a semi-random card and see what we can learn.

3 . Saffron’s Card of the Day is intended to be a discussion starter. Since it’s pretty difficult to have a meaningful discussion with myself, please let your voice be heard. While I hope that you learn something from reading my thoughts, opinions, and research, I also want to learn from more of you. Also, if there is a specific card you want feature on Card of the Day, let me know, and I’ll do my best to make it happen.

I’m sure I’ll add some more criteria to this list as we go along, but those are the big three right now. On to the very first ever Saffron’s Card of the Day:

Rings of Brighthearth

Set: Lorwyn

Release Date: October, 2007

Set Info: Big, Fall, Unique (Two set) block structure.

Where it Sees Play: EDH/Commander, Kitchen Tables, and very, very rarely in Legacy MUD.

Price: $11.35, up from $2.00 in December 2012, a 467 percent increase in three years.

Spread: 29.21 percent.

As I was looking over the price history of Rings, I started asking myself, should I have been buying in on Rings a few years ago? Did I miss this one? Did I make a bad decision in 2012? The card is up nearly 500 percent in three years after all and Ring of Brightheart is a unique and very cool, a card that seems like a obvious, no-brain, slam-dunk in EDH and on kitchen tables. It’s also from a pre-boom, pre-commander set, so there are comparatively few copies of Rings in the market.

Now, I’ve talking in some of my goldfish articles about various cognitive biases which can effect our financial decisions, including the hindsight bias. Of course Rings of the Brightheart seems like an obvious buy now, but was buying the card in 2011 or 2012 the right decision then?

In all honesty, I’m torn. Holding casual-only cards like Rings for years has become an increasingly risky proposition with annual commander decks and a focus on reprinting expensive cards, but this really wasn’t the case (at least to the same extent it is now) in 2011. Sure, there were reprints, but Rings, at the time $1-$2 rare wasn’t exactly screaming “reprint me NOW!”

On the other hand, it seems all to clear that this card would increase in price if it wasn’t not reprinted. I mean, why wouldn’t it? Colorless, combo-piece, janky as hell, doubling things-n-stuff – Its text box is basically a supreme pizza of casual goodness – Its got everything on it.

But, at the same time, I have no idea why it hasn’t been reprinted yet. It could easily be slotted into a Standard legal set (see: Illusionist’s Bracers.) It also seems like a good choice for the commander series (by the way, how did RIngs dodge Built from Scratch? Too much value in one deck?), or even just some random supplemental product.

Obviously, looking over the price history, I wish I had bought in. Any time a card increases in value (and against-the-odds, dodges reprinting) I end up wishing I bough it, but I’m still not convinced buying is at or before December 2012 was the right decision at the time. Decision making cannot be judged solely on the results, because, most often, we don’t know the results when we are making a decision.

Sure, Rings would have been a great buy, but if I try to put myself into the body of December, 2012 Saffron, I’m pretty sure he would have pegged this cards at $1 now as the result of some sort of reprinting. So I believe 2012 Saffron made the right call by not buying Rings, even if it looks like a bad choice now.

So what about Bracers? It’s just above bulk and seeing nearly as much Commander play as Rings of Brightheart? There are, without a doubt, way more copies of any Gatecrash rare than a Lorywn rare, so that’s a big strike against Bracers being the next Rings price-wise, and it’s just so uncomfortable to be holding cards for year and years in the current reprinting environment. I learned this lesson in earnest when I published a piece on kitchen table price trajectories a week before Commander 2014 spoiler, only to see close to half the cards I mentioned get reprinted. This said, Bracers is basically bulk, so apart from opportunity costs, there is little risk involved in buying in, although this one isn’t for me, because it seems unlikely to ever be a big winner due to the current atmosphere of aggressive reprintings, despite its inherent coolness and Commander playability.

Personally, one year or less is my timeframe for holding non-reserve list singles at this point and I can’t imagine Bracers increasing enough to post a profit after shipping and fees in that timeframe.

As for Rings, I just can’t imaging avoiding the combination of Modern Masters 2015, Magic 2016, and Commander 2015, I just can’t. Once that happens, it’s back to the drawing board, with a ton of copies in the market.

So what do you think? Did you buy in on Rings? If not, with the hindsight bias in mind, should you have? Let me know in the comments, or on Twitter.

Also, for all your /r/mtgfinance peeps out there, is this something you want to see posted regularly? I like putting piece on reddit, due to the discussion the (usually) generate in the sub, but I also don’t want to abuse the privilege, so give me your thoughts.

Examining Shocks Through the Lens of Fetches

Modern Masters 2015 is still all the rage in the #mtgfinance community (you can read my initial thoughts here), but we still know very little about the set, too little to make many solid evaluations. Probably the most important thing we do know is that nothing past New Phyrexia will be printed in the set. A quick look back at the original MMA reminds us that the cut-off the first time around was Zendikar block, at this time of year in 2012 was fairly recently rotated from standard.

1. This means that, at least as far as seasonal and rotational cycles, Zendikar block is to MMA what Return to Ravnica block is to MM2015.

It’s common knowledge that the best time to buy new Modern (or Legacy) cards is within a few months of their rotation from standard. I won’t bother rehashing the reasons why, because they are fairly well known and understood.

This means that, even without the MM2015 announcement, it is already the right time to be buying eternal playables from RTR block. If anything, we are getting close to the end of the window, as most tournament cards bottom somewhere between rotation and the release of the winter set.

While there are quite a few eternal cards in Return to Ravnica block, today we are going to focus exclusively on the Shock lands, with the help of the price trajectories of the Fetch lands during the year after Zendikar’s rotation from standard.

2. While ZEN is to MMA what RTR is to MM2015, there is more RTR in print.

If you look back over the price histories of Zendikar block, you’ll find that most Modern playables (including the Fetchland cycle) bottomed between rotation and the release of Mirrodin Besiged, started slowing creeping up through the Spring of 2013, and then doubled in price from when MMA released and November 2013 (and then many of these cards spiked even higher around the time of GP Richmond.)

This said, being the “most opened set in history” limits the potential of RTR block when compared to Zendikar. WOTC is notorious for not releasing print runs, so its hard to say just how many more Shocks there are than Fetches, or how many more Sphinx’s Revelations there are than Iona’s, but rest assured, there are more, and likely magnitudes more.

Shocks in particular present a problem. While all the Zendikar fetches more then doubled in price between October 2012 and October 2013, not only did they have the Modern explosion from MMA, but also Legacy demand, as well as the benefits of only having a single printing in an early-growth period set. Shocks, on the other hand, have 2.5 printings (counting the Dragon’s Maze copies of the RTR and GTC shocks as a half a printing), have little Legacy demand, and are found in middle-to-late growth period set. They are also less-played in Modern than fetches, generally being one-or-two ofs, rather than four-ofs.

As such, when you look at the big pictures, it seems hard to argue that shocks can experience the same amount of growth as fetches did post-rotation. This said, it also seems very likely that shocks are still a great buy at the moment.

3. So where are Shocks going to be in a year?

Zendikar fetches increased, on average 170 percent in their year following their rotation. Scalding Tarn went from $18 to $50, even the lowly Marsh Flats went from $12 to $32. If we translated a 170 percent increase into Shock values, we would be looking at prices in the low-to-mid $20’s next fall.

But again, Shocks are not fetches.

So what if we assume, based on all the factors we talked about a few moments ago (DGM printing, original Ravnica block printing, coming from a more opened set, seeing less play in both modern and legacy) Shocks increase at half the rate of Fetches. This would give us an increase of 85 percent rather than 170 percent. Based on the current $8-$10 price range on shocks, this would mean a year from now, prices would be in the mid-to-high teens. Which definitely seems worth buying into.

The less profitable alternative is if, instead of growing at half the rate of Fetches, Shocks only grow at a quarter of the rate, and increase 42 percent. This would give us prices between $12 and $14. While this still represents a profit, if you think about opportunity cost, shipping, and fees, buying in at $9 and selling for $13 is by no means a slam dunk (and also eliminates buylists as an option for moving your Shocks, because with a typical 30 percent spread, you would be making in the neighborhood of $0.10 a piece for a not-insignificant investment).

4. So the question is, do you believe Shocks are half as good as Fetches?

Personally, I believe they are, and as a result, I’m expecting mid-to-high teen prices for Shocks by next fall, but this is a question you need to ask and answer for yourself, based on the evidence and your feelings about the potential growth in the Modern format as a result of MM2015. If you don’t feel confidant that Shock can and will grow at half the rate of Fetches (or more), than you shouldn’t buy in.

P.S. If you decide to buy in, BUY THE ORIGINALS.

Now, take this with a grain of stale, because I’m a sucker for original printing personally, but I’m only interested in buying Shocks from the original Ravnica block. Apart from my bias against reprints, the general consensus seems to be that the art is better, and from a pragmatic standpoint, there are far fewer in circulation.

Plus, they only cost a dollar or two more than the RTR versions, which seems crazy.

You can buy a KTK Polluted Delta for about $15, but if you want an ONS copy, it’s going to cost you closer to $50 (I realize KTK to ONS is more different than RAV to RTR ascetically, but still). At the same time, you can buy a Gatecrash Breeding Pool for $9 ,but you can get the much better looking and rarer Dissension version for $10? This doesn’t really make much sense. Why would you not be the originals when the prices are practically the same?

Anyway, that’s all for today. I have a piece ready to go at http://www.mtggoldfish.com comparing holding sealed booster boxes to investing in mutual funds. It should be out soon, so make sure to check it out.

Modern Meta at #mtgchamp

World’s Week is always one of the most fun times on the magic calendar. While the World Cup is always entertaining, if you like star power and high-level magic, the World Championship is the event for you.

Yesterday started with three rounds of Vintage Masters draft (likely the first sanctioned phantom draft in paper magic) highlighted by Wraper opening a Mox Jet and Jeremy Dezani’s first match taking nearly three hours to finish 0-2-1 (which was actually great for me, because despite my best intentions, I didn’t wake up until 5 AM, nearly two hours after the start of the event).

I spent the lunch break calculating the EV of drafting VMA in paper. By using the cheapest version of each card (so white bordered power, Revised duals, etc) and discounting commons and uncommons all together, I came up with a touch over $166 (and its probably a bit higher if you count things like Reanimate at uncommon and Brainstorm at common). Either way, if anyone offers you the chance to pay $150 for a non-phantom paper VMA draft, you should probably take it.

Modern Meta

While opening Mox Jet’s is awesome, and the EV of paper VMA is interesting, what I really wanted to talk about was the Modern metagame brought to Worlds by 24 of the best players on earth. If you check out the deck lists , here is the breakdown you’ll find.

Most Played Cards (Lands)
*The highest number of any single card that could be played in a 24 player field is 96.

Land Discussion

I should mention right off the bat that using a 24 player tournament made up of ultra-spikes may not be the best way to generalize to the broader meta. On one hand, people do tend to follow the pros lead, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of their innovations showing up on-line or in your FLGS over the winter, but at the same time, a deck like Pyromancer Ascension takes a lot of skill to play well, so it’s definitely not for every F&M grinder. This said, it’s still worth discussing what the pros are up to in modern.

First off, there are a ton of Scalding Tarns and Steam Vents being played at the World Championship. While this isn’t really a surprise, finding that a 66.67 percent of the World Championship field is playing the full four copies of Scalding Tarn (across several different decks, no less) is worth note. Prices on Tarn have been steadily decreasing for a year now and there is some amount of speculation/fear about a reprinting in the near future. I don’t think ZEN fetches will show up in KTK-block (mostly because of the “the enemy/ally breakdown of lands in standard is already equal” argument), and while having ONS fetches in modern relieves some of the pressure on mana-bases as a whole by allowing for less expensive substitutes, the World Championship field shows that the correct (i.e. no budget concerns) modern manabase is going to be Scalding Tarn heavy. Whether or not this means a recovery for Tarn is yet to be seen, although having a modern PT in a couple months, and on-camera SCG events starting soon can’t hurt.

Second, where the heck is Polluted Delta? Blue decks, and blue fetches are dominating the tournament, but Delta is nowhere to be found.

Third, if you had told my Sunday that there would be 12 Faerie Conclaves in the field, I would have laughed you out of the room.

Fourth, it is worth mentioning that there are two difference Jeskai Ascendency builds, the CFB Fatesticher based combo, and a 5-color version from Lars Dam. While I would guess that most people will move towards the CFB build because of the groups popularity, Dam’s build is running x4 Gemstone Mine, which hasn’t really made much noise in modern. If, for some reason, Ascendency Combo heads Dam’s direction, maybe there could be some potential here?

Dig Through Time or Treasure Cruise?

So, as the above pie chart shows, there are more Cruises than Digs in the World Championship field. At this point it clear that Dig is better in control, and Treasure Cruise is better in tempo/aggro (basically, decks where most of your cards do the same thing). The most interesting Dig/Cruise revelation from the World Championship comes from what decks are not playing Cruise, specifically the CFB Ascendency deck, which decided on a 1-4 split in favor of Dig. This is a major evolution in the Ascendency deck, as the earlier build of Ascendency Combo tended to favor Dig.

Counterspells

Non-situational counters are at an surprising low, especially considering the number of Scalding Tarns in the field. However, the versatile Izzet Charm is out in force. Both the F&M promo and RTR foils are sitting at between $2.50 and $3.00, with a foil multiplier of about x4, and could represent a good buy.

Final Notes:

I was going to break down creatures, but given that a high percentage of the deck in the field are creature free (Pyromancer Ascension), creature-light (Ascendency Combo, Scapeshift), or Delver, there really isn’t much to see here.

The fact that nearly half the Delver decks are splashing green for Tarmogoyf is interesting, and represents another new development. The return of Pyromancer Ascension is a good story, and the deck could see an uptick in popularity as a budget option for local modern events. Ascension was as high as $10 over the summer, and you can pick up copies for as little as $5 currently and could be a card to keep an eye on. Its probably worth skimming over the some upcoming modern results to see if the deck is on the upswing, or if it is simply the product of the pro meta.

CFB returned to the Gifts/Rites transformational SB plan, which was somewhat popular online a year or so ago. While it probably won’t impact prices of anything much, as a player it’s something to be aware of because it does seem like a good way to pick up some free wins with Iona, given the severe lack of any graveyard interaction in the World Championship meta.

Finally, don’t think about specing Fatestitcher. Sure, the deck is cool, but it’s an uncommon, and even foils are uninteresting due to those horrible all foils Alara block packs.

Anyway, what do you make of this data? What did I miss. Let me know in the comments, or @SaffronOlive on twitter.
“

Prophetic Mardu Takes Down GPT

Edit: Grand Prix San Antonio 2014. Full trial lists found here

Planeswalker (1)

1 Chandra, Pyromaster

Creature (15)

4 Monastery Swiftspear

3 Prophetic Flamespeaker

4 Goblin Rabblemaster

1 Purphoros, God of the Forge

3 Eidolon of the Great Revel

Sorcery (4)

4 Hordeling Outburst

Instant (17)

2 Crackling Doom

4 Stoke the Flames

2 Murderous Cut

4 Lightning Strike

3 Titan’s Strength

2 Magma Jet

Land (23)

4 Nomad Outpost

1 Swamp

3 Battlefield Forge

6 Mountain

4 Bloodstained Mire

3 Temple of Triumph

1 Temple of Malice

1 Mana Confluence

Sideboard (15)

2 Crackling Doom

1 Prophetic Flamespeaker

1 Battlefield Forge

1 Eidolon of the Great Revel

1 Ashcloud Phoenix

2 Glare of Heresy

1 Arc Lightning

2 Magma Spray

1 Erebos, God of the Dead

Comments:

Prophetic Flamespeaker is from the right set JOU (small, spring) to see big gains with x4 play. After no small amount of hype at release, Flamespeaker has mostly been relegated to x1 status in tier 2 mono-red aggro decks, and even in these decks, he is no sure conclusion. Perhaps this is changing with the success (albeit in a trial) of the above list.

Flamespeaker is currently at an all time low. You can buy from vendors for as low as $1.79. He also boasts a negative spread, with the best buylist price being $2.01.

Persuaded by the fact that Flamespeaker, at various times, has seen fringe modern play, and has potential to show up in the format again, sooner or later, I just picked up two play sets, even if the Prophetic Mardu deck goes no where, all the other signs point to Flamespeaker being a solid buy at the moment.