During my last cube draft I found myself thinking about fow absurd is it that a 10/10 protection from everything is pretty close to unplayable (and unplayed) in every format. Not that long ago,Progenitus was likely the best creature to Show and Tell into play on T2, or Natural Order off of some elf mana on T3. But no longer.
Since people are still sneaking and showing and natural ordering (like at an organic deli, *rim shot*), this means that, since Progenitus was printed 5 years ago, it has simply been outclassed by new cards. And this is true, WOTC has printed not one, but two creatures which are apparently (judging by level-of-play) better than a two-turn clock that is nigh unkillable. To be fair, the five-color mana cost is part of the issue, but only a very small part. It’s not like Sneak and Show or Elves were casting Progenitus anyway.
The first of these Progenitus replacements is obvious:
I’m not sure Emrakul should have been printed, but it’s pretty easy to see why its better than Progenitus. The flying spaghetti monster gives up a bit of Progenitus’s protections (things like Jace and Oblivion Ring are considered to be part of everything, but are not colored spells), but gains the ability to annihilate an opponents entire board. While it is theoretically possible (although difficult) to race a Progenitus with something like a Umezawa’s Jitte and a couple Tarmogoyfs, Emrakul is pretty much impossible to beat attack step v. attack step.
The second replacement for Progenitus is not as obvious, but is no less a part of the Hydra Avatar’s demise in competitive magic. In a deck like Legacy Elves, Hoof has two big advantages. First, instead of taking two (or even three) turns to kill an opponent, the Behemoth most often accomplishes this in zero. Second, Elves can actually cast Craterhoof from its hand, with some combination of Llanowar Elves and Gaea’s Cradle. In the old days, there was no worse feeling as an elves player than naturally drawing your one-of Progenitus. It was literally the same as skipping your draw step, and maybe even worse due to the psychological deflation that comes along with it.
The final nail in Progenitus’s price coffin was being printed in Modern Masters – with no competitive play to help its price recover, even being printed as a mythic in a limited release was enough to drop Progenitus from $17.5 to $11 – and prices are still on the decline.
The point is…:
We are living in a time of magic’s history where power creep on creatures is a very real thing (spells, on the other hand, are pretty safe at this point, so don’t be expecting a two-mana Show and Tell anytime soon). Just because Hoof and Emrakul are the best things to cheat into play right now, does not mean that they will be after FRF releases in a couple months, or when M16 releases next summer.
I was just looking over a list http://www.metamox.com/format-analytics.php?format=legacy of the most played cards in legacy. I found myself thinking, “they can’t print something better than Bob, or Goyf, or Thalia, or Snapcaster…they are already as efficient as possible.”
And this may be true, but I bet, if I was looking over this list a few years ago, I would have though, “Progenitus? That is going to be the best Show and Tell target like, forever….” (notice the “like,” apparently a few years ago I talked like a teen girl from The Hills).
Expensive creatures that are cheated into play seem to be most at risk of being outclassed, simply because with these creatures, mana cost really doesn’t matter. Emrakul could have 100 written (or 1,000,000) in the upper right corner, and it would still see the same amount of play (well, almost, 12-Post would be pissed).
The other wild card in the situation is a potential MM2 this summer. While competitive mythics from Modern Masters rebounded quickly, there is no guarantee that MM2 will be as limited a printing (actually, it’s almost guaranteed not to be as limited). This means more copies of Emrakul (assuming he makes the cut) in the market, a sharper decline in princes, and longer recovery period – if prices recover at all.
In short: nothing is safe anymore. Long-term investments in MTG are becoming increasingly risky.
Legacy may or may not being dying.
Wurmcoil is in COM14.
Modern staples are being reprinted willy-nilly.
Fetches in KTK.
MM2 on the horizon.
And apparently powercreep isn’t a part of everything.
Saffron Olive's Magic Blog 